GTA New-Home Market 2026: Low-Rise Sales Rise While Condos Lag

The GTA’s new-home market is telling two very different stories.

Low-rise homes—detached houses, semis, linked homes, and traditional townhouses—are selling again. Condominiums remain far below normal sales levels. Prices have also moved differently between the two sectors, creating a market where buyers need to look past the headline numbers.

According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), 1,175 new homes sold across the GTA in June 2026. That was a major improvement from the record low of June 2025, but still 52% below the 10-year average for a typical June.

Low-rise sales are outperforming their historical average

There were 902 new single-family home sales in the GTA in June. BILD defines this group as detached, linked, and semi-detached homes plus townhouses, excluding stacked townhouses.

That total was 36% above the 10-year average for June. In other words, the recovery is not evenly spread across the new-home market. Buyers have been responding to more inventory, price reductions, and available tax relief in the low-rise sector.

The benchmark price for a new single-family home was $1,275,458, down 15.5% over the previous 12 months. BILD notes that this is a gross price and does not include any additional benefit available to qualifying purchasers through the new-home HST rebate.

Condo sales remain weak

Only 273 new condominium apartments sold in June. That included units in low-, medium-, and high-rise buildings as well as stacked townhouses.

Although condo sales improved modestly from June 2025, they were still 85% below the 10-year average. The benchmark price for a new condominium apartment was $1,038,604.

BILD’s research points to a key difference: low-rise pricing has adjusted more meaningfully, while condo pricing has shown less flexibility. That gap may help explain why buyers are moving toward townhouses, semis, and detached homes while remaining cautious about new condos.

This is a split market—not a broad recovery

The 1,175 total sales represent progress, but the market is still operating at roughly half of its normal June volume. Calling this a full housing recovery would be premature.

A more accurate reading is:

• Low-rise sales have real momentum.

• Single-family benchmark pricing has adjusted significantly.

• Condo sales remain historically weak.

• Total new-home activity is still well below normal.

• Buyers have more negotiating power than they did during the peak years.

The official June figures are available in BILD’s July 22, 2026 market release, which credits Altus Group as its source for new-home market intelligence.

What this means for GTA buyers

1. Compare the final price, not the advertised price

Builder incentives can take many forms: price reductions, upgrades, closing-cost credits, deposit structures, assignment terms, or occupancy-related concessions. Compare the full agreement and your total cost—not just the promotion on the sign.

2. Check whether you qualify for HST relief

Tax rebates can materially affect the economics of a new-home purchase, but eligibility and timing matter. Confirm the current rules with a qualified lawyer or tax professional and ensure the agreement reflects how the rebate will be handled.

3. Stress-test the monthly carrying cost

A lower purchase price is helpful, but affordability depends on the mortgage payment, property taxes, condo fees where applicable, utilities, insurance, maintenance, and closing costs. Leave room in the budget for rate changes and unexpected expenses.

4. Evaluate the builder and the contract

New-construction agreements are lengthy and builder-friendly. Have a lawyer review the agreement during any permitted cooling-off period. Pay attention to adjustment charges, development levies, occupancy terms, construction delays, assignment restrictions, and what happens if your financing changes before closing.

5. Think about your holding period

The current environment may reward buyers who can qualify comfortably and plan to hold the property for the long term. It is less forgiving for anyone depending on a quick resale, rapid appreciation, or future rate cuts to make the numbers work.

What this means for condo buyers

Weak sales do not automatically mean every condo is a bargain. It means buyers should negotiate carefully and compare projects on more than price.

Review the location, unit layout, estimated maintenance fees, parking and locker value, deposit schedule, completion timeline, rental restrictions, surrounding supply, and the builder’s track record. A project with a strong end-user location and sensible carrying costs may hold value better than one relying mainly on investor demand.

What this means for investors

Run the numbers using realistic rents, vacancy, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and management costs. Do not assume that today’s incentive will turn into tomorrow’s equity.

In a market with elevated inventory and uneven demand, the best opportunities are usually properties that work under conservative assumptions—not only in the most optimistic scenario.

The bottom line

The GTA new-home market is improving, but the recovery is concentrated. Low-rise homes are benefiting from lower benchmark pricing, inventory, and buyer incentives. Condominiums continue to face weak sales and less price adjustment.

For qualified buyers with a long-term plan, this may be one of the better negotiating environments seen in years. The opportunity is real, but it still requires careful financing, contract review, and property selection.

Want help comparing new homes across the GTA?

SirLuckHomes Real Estate Brokerage can help you compare projects, builder incentives, carrying costs, and resale alternatives before you commit. Call or text 416-747-5825, email [email protected], or visit SirLuckHomes.com.

This article provides general real estate information and is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Market figures can change; verify current incentives and eligibility before making a purchase decision.