The PBO's rate forecast isn't a Bank of Canada decision.

A forecast that interest rates could rise is not a notice that your mortgage rate has changed. Before you make a housing decision around a headline, check who made the prediction and what they actually said.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer released its October economic outlook on October 20. It projects Canadian economic growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. It also assumes the Bank of Canada's policy rate will reach 2.75% by the middle of 2027.

That last sentence needs context. The report says its rate path is an assumption used to build the projection, not advice on monetary policy. It isn't a Bank of Canada announcement. The outlook incorporates economic data through October 6 and trade measures in effect on October 1, with assumptions about those measures continuing.

A national forecast isn't a mortgage offer

For a GTA buyer, there are two different documents here. One describes a possible direction for the economy. The other is the actual financing available for your purchase. Don't treat the first as a substitute for the second.

If someone tells you that borrowing will be cheaper next year, ask which rate they mean. The central bank's policy rate and the mortgage offer sitting in front of you are not interchangeable. Ask your lender or licensed mortgage professional to explain your particular offer, how long it remains valid and what would change your payment.

The same caution applies in the other direction. A projected increase does not mean every buyer should rush to sign an offer this weekend. A deadline created by a headline is a poor substitute for checking the home, the financing and the terms.

Put a different payment beside the one you expect

Ask for a written payment comparison using your proposed borrowing amount, term and repayment period. Have the mortgage professional show the payment under the offer available now and under a higher rate you agree to test. Ask them to keep the other assumptions the same so you can see what changed.

Then put that difference into your household budget. Which expense would have to move? Would you still have money for repairs after closing? Those answers are more useful than deciding that a forecast sounds optimistic or frightening.

Sellers need local evidence too

A national economic projection doesn't establish what a buyer will pay for your house. For a pricing conversation, bring it back to comparable completed sales, competing homes and the condition of the property. Treat the economic outlook as context, not a replacement for that work.

Our take is simple: use the new report to ask better questions, not to pretend the next rate decision has already happened.

General information from SirLuckHomes Real Estate Brokerage. For a mortgage decision, have a licensed mortgage professional review your circumstances and the actual product terms.

Illustrative photograph of Parliament Hill's buildings, taken January 30, 2025 by Salwa Farwaneh. Original photograph, released under CC0. It does not depict a meeting or the release of this report.